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Commentaire de Warren Hyland sur la Turquie et le nouveau gouverneur de la banque centrale

Comme nous l’avons vu dans la presse, et à la surprise générale, le gouvernement turc a remplacé la semaine dernière le président de la banque centrale, Naci Agbal, quatre mois et demi seulement après sa prise de fonction. 

Sous la direction d’Agbal, la Banque centrale de la République de Turquie (TCMB) avait regagné la confiance du marché grâce à un retour à une politique monétaire orthodoxe et à une communication transparente.

La raison de son licenciement était le relèvement des taux d’intérêt le 18 mars – une hausse de 2 % contre une augmentation attendue par le consensus de 1 %. Le président Recep Tayyip Erdogan est sensible à un resserrement agressif de la politique monétaire. Le nouveau président du TCMB, Sahap Kavcioglu, professeur de banque et d’assurance à l’université de Marmara, n’est pas très connu. Cependant, il a critiqué le resserrement de la politique monétaire de l’Agbal.

Dans sa première communication à la banque, M. Kavcioglu a déclaré que le TCMB « continuera à utiliser efficacement les instruments de politique monétaire conformément à son objectif principal, qui est de parvenir à une baisse permanente de l’inflation ».

À notre avis, nous ne sommes pas en 2018 – une crise monétaire où les investisseurs ont perdu confiance à la fois dans la banque centrale et dans le gouvernement. Ce n’est pas non plus 2020, lorsque la politique non orthodoxe consistant à utiliser les réserves de change pour soutenir la monnaie est devenue insoutenable. 2021 est une ré-évaluation de l’incertitude de la politique monétaire. Nous avons actuellement une position sous-pondérée sur la Turquie et nous reverrons notre positionnement après la prochaine réunion de la banque centrale. 

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