Carmignac – A clear victory for Mr. Macron but the hard part remains to be done

24 avril 2022

Carmignac – A clear victory for Mr. Macron but the hard part remains to be done

Photo © Carmignac

Par Frédéric Leroux, member of the Strategic Investment Committee

E. Macron’s clear victory is likely to reassure the markets that the European dynamic will continue. In the short term, the main logical beneficiary of this election could be the euro, which was still flirting last Friday with two-year lows against the dollar. As the European equity market has rather outperformed the US market in the last few days, there is not necessarily a reason to expect a massive outperformance of French or European equities against the US. The negative aspect for the markets of this rather comfortable election could however come from a quick decision in favour of a Russian oil embargo which would exacerbate inflationary pressures and economic slowdown (stagflation scenario) in Europe.

But the real issues are not immediate. Is the outcome of this election clear enough to anticipate that the June parliamentary elections will give the President a majority that will allow him to implement his pro-business and pro-European policies desired by the markets? It seems dangerous at this stage to take it for granted. In the longer term, regardless of the geography of power, the main constraint on economic policies will be sustained inflation. It is not at all clear that the economic programs on which the president and deputies are being elected have been built on this reality, which is becoming more and more evident. And France is no exception in this respect.

Retrouvez l’ensemble de nos articles Business

Recommandé pour vous

BUSINESS
Muzinich & Co.: Weekly Update – Une évidence ?
Le mois de septembre a démarré lentement, avec des facteurs saisonniers défavora…
BUSINESS
Perspectives des matières premières : Résilience face au réalignement de l’année du Serpent
Par Nitesh Shah, Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Lors…
BUSINESS
BCE : les prévisions ne devraient pas céder à la volonté des « colombes » –...
Par Michael Krautzberger, CIO Public Markets chez AllianzGI •   &…
BUSINESS
Perspectives pour la réunion de la BCE – Prolongation probable de la pause dans...
Par Ulrike Kastens, Senior Économiste Europe Avant une réunion de la Banque cent…
BUSINESS
L’inflation grimpe à 2,1% dans la zone euro, le taux de base reste inchangé...
Par Ulrike Kastens, Senior Économiste Europe L’inflation grimpe à 2,1% dan…
BUSINESS
Muzinich & Co.: Weekly Update – Un cygne noir en approche ?
Le mois d’août a été favorable aux investisseurs, la plupart des marchés a…